Hi folks. It’s been a minute.
This newsletter is meant to be occasional, but even still, you haven’t heard from me in several months. Mostly because I’ve been focused on finding, then starting, a new job.
In terms of climate, the times are wild. I’m not going to try to keep up with all the developments. Instead, here’s the start of a little summer series. The plan is for these to be shorter pieces (<10 minute reads) on a skill or mode that’s useful for being alive in these times—which I am working on myself. Together I hope they add up to a little set of tools for living through a planetary health crisis. Here’s the first post.
I finally read Donella Meadows’s classic Thinking in Systems: A Primer. (Thanks to sustainability leader Brian for giving me a copy and to everyone who has echoed his recommendation.)
The book is about systems thinking. In it, a legendary systems modeler lays out what systems are, how they tend to behave, and how we might influence them.
Systems thinking is a way of understanding the world. It views the world not as disconnected, atomized, or separate parts — as much of Western thinking has tended to do — but as an interconnected, interactive whole whose design influences its pattern of behavior and whose pattern of behavior, in turn, provides clues about its design. A system could be, for example, a body, a relationship, a family, a forest, an organization, a culture, or yes, a planet.
To understand a system’s behavior, Meadows says, watch its performance over time. To learn about how a system works, Meadows says, pay attention to the feedback loops which stabilize or reinforce trends. This is valuable information.
Applied to the planet: this summer, planet Earth’s systems are sending strong signals and providing valuable information.The ocean, which absorbs most of the Earth’s carbon and excess heat, has reached new levels of hot, in places, and is changing color. Arctic sea ice, another major planetary cooler, has dropped to a record low for this time of year. Extreme heat is blanketing major populated regions around the world, including much of the southern U.S. The world has just undergone the hottest string of days in recorded history, following the hottest month (yes, El Niño plays a part). New research suggests the globe is about the hottest it’s been in a million years.
The heat, floods, droughts, and fires are all telltale signs of a planet running a fossil-fueled fever, were predicted for decades, and will increase as long as the same system dynamics continue (thanks to reinforcing feedback loops). These are all signals, reminding us: we live in an interconnected planetary system. And the system’s boundaries have been breached.
Of course, this information doesn’t even begin to address the magnitude of human impacts. This info is not news for most of you. Nor does it take systems thinking to understand it.
And though alarming headlines may send us scrambling toward relief—whether via action or apathy—it’s worth slowing down to really understand what’s happening. Here, the history of systems thinking may shed light.
Background: The Limits to Growth
Systems thinking pioneer Meadows was one of the original group of systems modelers in the 60s/70s who sought to understand the relationship between various global crises: poverty, economic inequality, environmental degradation, etc. In 1972, she and her colleagues published The Limits to Growth, essentially arguing that the earth as a finite system can’t handle infinite growth and consumption. (This later served as inspiration for Kate Raworth’s Doughnut Economics—discussed here—which reimagines what economies could look like if they were designed to work within the limits, or carrying capacity, of our one planetary system.)
A short, three-episode podcast, Tipping Point, recently came out. It recounts how Limits to Growth came to be, what it said, and how it was received. The book’s claims were questioned, disavowed, slandered, or ignored by economists and mainstream media. How different our world would be now had they been understood. Imagine if political and economic leaders had acted on this information in the 70s, 80s, or even 90s. The podcast is a fascinating bit of history, with huge implications for how we understand and work within where we are today. I highly recommend it.
Intervening in a system
Systems thinking can help us understand systems. It can show us that the system behaves in line with its design. But how might it help us change the design and thus change the system?
First of all, knowledge of systems is itself power in a complex and interconnected world. Anywhere you may want to leverage change, there are systems at play — whether at your workplace, local government, sub-community, etc. I’m not a fan of the individual vs. collective action binary; it’s pretty clear to me that individual choices matter, but the ones that matter most are the ones that help systems change (which yes, is usually best achieved through collectives). Knowing how systems work increases the likelihood you can intervene effectively in a system (or support a system that is functioning well for people and the planet).
On this, a few points from Thinking in Systems stuck out to me:
If every system is made up of 1) elements, 2) interconnections, and 3) purpose, it’s most tempting to change the elements (e.g., in an organization, the people). But more impact probably lies with the interconnections (e.g., how information flows) and the most lies with the purpose (e.g., the functional goal of the organization). The goal or paradigm is the most powerful lever there is. So it’s worth questioning the value of a goal, especially if it is unstated and unexamined (e.g., GNP and if its version of “growth” should be the goal of an economy, rather than human wellbeing).
Paradigms are another crucial place to address. A paradigm is:
“The shared idea in the minds of society, the great big unstated assumptions, constitutes that society’s paradigm, or deepest set of beliefs about how the world works. The beliefs are unstated because it is unnecessary to state them—everyone already knows them…people who have managed to intervene in systems at the level of paradigm have hit a leverage point that totally transforms systems.” (162-3)
How? Point out the failures of the old paradigm, and speak and act from the new one. Don’t waste time with reactionaries; “work with active change agents and with the vast middle ground of people who are open-minded.”
Take the time to understand a system before intervening. “Before you charge in to make things better, pay attention to the value of what’s already there.” For example, the local climate group I organize with would have saved time and been more effective had we understood from the beginning what we understand now about the local political system. By the same principle, any government ought to take a long, hard think before opening the door to geoengineering—especially while it keeps dirty energy flowing. To me, Meadows’ advice amounts to: “Don’t just do something, stand there”—observe before intervening.
When something fundamental within a system shifts, change can happen rapidly—more rapidly than expected. This is why it is valuable to understand and outline which social tipping points can set system-level shifts in motion.
Beyond the diagrams and explanations, Meadows lays out the mindsets and other human qualities needed to meaningfully intervene in systems, which are right up this newsletter’s alley:
According to Meadows, “Everything we think we know about the world is [only] a model” for understanding the world. Therefore, be open to being surprised; be open to updating your mental models. Stay humble, stay a learner, for “error-embracing is the condition for learning.”
Systems are subject to humans, not technocracy: “The future can’t be controlled, but it can be envisioned and brought lovingly into being. Systems can’t be controlled, but they can be designed and redesigned.”
All our humanity is required: “Living successfully in a world of systems requires more of us than our ability to calculate. It requires our full humanity—our rationality, our ability to sort out truth from falsehood, our intuition, our compassion, our vision, and our morality”
We understand the world’s interconnection, we just have to believe it:
“The real system is interconnected. No part of the human race is separate either from other human beings or from the global ecosystem. It will not be possible in this integrated world for your heart to succeed if your lungs fail, or for your company to succeed if your workers fail, or for the rich in Los Angeles to succeed if the poor in Los Angeles fail, or for Europe to succeed if Africa fails, or for the global economy to succeed if the global environment fails…As with everything else about systems, most people already know about the interconnections that make moral and practical rules turn out to be the same rules. They just have to bring themselves to believe that which they know.”
Will the current signals of planetary overshoot finally be a wake up call, to help more and more of us believe what we already know? They absolutely can be. Time will tell.
Systems thinking is a valuable tool to help us understand a complex and interconnected world—where we’ve come from, how we’ve gotten here, and how to create change. Though not an easy read, Thinking In Systems is a rewarding primer.
Here are two more accessible resources for understanding and acting on systems:
An especially applicable chapter from the book is a free .pdf: “Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System”
Climate Interactive offers a free and high quality course on how to understand and use systems thinking specifically in climate work: The Climate Leader course
Good news
One of the last lines of Thinking in Systems is “don’t weigh the bad news more heavily than the good.” In line with this, here is a small sampling of good news to lift up—taking place within systems:
Grid: Solar Power Is Bailing Texas Out This Summer (Texas Monthly). Despite the rhetoric from some politicians, renewable sources have kept the power on when people have needed it the most during this heat wave.
Rainforest: Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon is Dropping (Reuters). Given the role the rainforest plays in planet Earth (it’s been dubbed the “lungs” of the planet), stopping deforestation is one of the most time sensitive solutions out there.
Culture: The media covers only a narrow slice of climate research (Anthropocene Magazine). “The problem isn’t just that the public is only getting informed about a narrow slice of climate change research. It’s that the slice they are hearing about is more likely to lead to fear, denial, and paralysis than climate action.” Why is this good news? Given the high importance Meadows places on information flows within a system, shifting this has huge implications. What could happen if research on positive possibilities and solutions were amplified? Changing the story can help to change the paradigm. This is something I want to work on in my own comms.
Until next time
I’ll end with this Donella Meadows quote:
“There is too much bad news to justify complacency. There is too much good news to justify despair.”
In that vein, I’m reading Not Too Late: Changing the Climate Story from Despair to Possibility. It’s not a long book. If you’re interested in reading along, I’m holding a virtual book discussion at the end of the month—let me know if you’d like to join. (Otherwise, see the project’s website for a quick shot of climate possibility.)
Thanks for reading. I hope you found it useful. Watch for the next part in this series soon.